Nepal has recently moved from a unitary governing structure to a federal structure with 7 provinces and 753 local bodies. The current constitution presents basic health care service as a fundamental right of the population. The Department of Health Services (DoHS) in Nepal estimates annual demographic targets for the health care workers and delivery system.
To support policy makers and health managers to set more precise demographic targets for health care in the new federal structure, the Digital Data System for Development (DDS4D) developed a population dynamic model (2011 - 2031) supported by The Asia Foundation in partnership with Development Initiatives under “Improving the Sharing and Use of Data as Evidence for Development in Nepal Program”.
The objective of the project was to develop a population model based on the state-of-the-art scientific methodology along with the latest available data from various sources. The population model is built on the sub-national population model developed by Prof. Dr. Samir KC, which includes projections of the population by various demographic and socio-economic characteristics. This website is the medium to share the results of the population model, in a user-friendly manner and through web visualizations.
The model includes five yearly projected population and demographic health targets (from 2011 to 2031) as needed by DoHS and the Ministry of Health for the planning, monitoring, coordination, supervision, and evaluation of health and population related policy programs.
The primary dataset used for projecting the population is the 2011 Census data, based on which usual medium development scenario is defined and the population is projected. The base year distribution of the population by age and sex is taken from the 2011 Census reports and other various parameters of the core demographic components such as fertility, mortality, and (internal and international) migration are estimated from the current population model. With the new federal structure in place, additional disaggregation and aggregation procedures were developed to convert the data from the old administrative structure into new federal administrative structure, including data and information on provincial, district and local levels, that reflects the continuation of recent demographic trends into the future.
For the population projection model, data was collected from various sources. In collecting, acquiring, managing, and sharing data, DDS4D acknowledges, respects and abides the related national and international laws, third party intellectual property rights, confidentiality obligations, and contractual terms and conditions of use as imposed by the provider of the data.
S. No. | Variable Name | Short Name | Definition |
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Demographic Variables |
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Population | |||
1 | Total | TP | Total population |
2. | Male | TMP | Total male population |
3. | Female | TFP | Total female population |
4. | Children (0-14 Years) | CP | Population of children aged 0 to 14 years |
5. | Working Age (15-64 Years) | WAP | Population of working age population aged 15 to 64 years |
6. | Elderly Age (65+ Years) | EAP | Population of elderly aged 65 years and above |
7. | Women in Reproductive Age (15-49 Years) | WRA | Women in reproductive age, 15 to 49 years old |
Births | |||
8. | Total Births | TB | Total number of births during a five year period calculated by applying age specific fertility rates to the mid-period population of woman in reproductive age |
9. | Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) | TFR | Total Fertility Rate represents average number of births per woman. It is calculated as the sum of age specific fertility rates. |
10. | Sex Ratio at Birth (male per female births) | SRB | Sex ratio at birth calculated as a ratio of total number of male to female births |
11. | Mean Age at Child Bearing | MACB | Mean age at child bearing is calculated as an average of mother’s age at birth |
12. | Crude Birth Rate (per 1000 population) | CBR | Crude Birth Rate is a ratio of total births during a period by the mid period population |
Deaths | |||
13. | Total Deaths | TD | Total number of deaths during a period calculated by applying age and sex specific survival ratios to the population |
14. | Female Life Expectancy at Birth | FLEB | Applying a period age specific mortality rates, the average number of life years a girl born during the period is expected to live |
15. | Male Life Expectancy at Birth | MLEB | Applying a period age specific mortality rates, the average number of life years a boy born during the period is expected to live |
16. | Infant Mortality Rate | IMR | Infant mortality rate (or ratio) is calculated as a proportion of infants who died before their first birthday and expressed in deaths per 1000 live births |
17. | Child Mortality Rate | CMR | Child mortality rate (or ratio) is calculated as a proportion of infants who died between the first and the fifth birthday and expressed in deaths per 1000 live births |
18. | Under 5 Mortality Rate | U5MR | Under 5 mortality rate (or ratio) is calculated as a proportion of infants who died before the fifth birthday and expressed in deaths per 1000 live births |
19. | Crude Death Rate (per 1000 population) | CDR | Crude Death Rate is a ratio of total deaths during a period by the mid period population |
Migration Flows | |||
20. | Inter-district In-migration | IDIM | Number of migrants coming in an area from other districts of Nepal during the last five years |
21. | Inter-district Out-migration | IDOM | Number of migrants leaving from an area to other districts of Nepal during the last five years |
22. | International Immigration | IM | Number of migrants coming in an area from other countries during the last five years, including return migrants |
23. | International Emigration | IE | Number of migrants leaving from an area to other countries during the last five years |
Dependency and Ageing | |||
24. | Total Dependency Ratio | TDR | Ratio of total dependent population (children 0-14 years old + elderly 65+ years old) to total number of working age population (15-64 years old) |
25. | Child Dependency Ratio | CDR | Ratio of children aged 0-14 years old to total number of working age population (15-64 years old) |
26. | Old Age Dependency Ratio | OADR | Ratio of elderly aged 65+ years old to total number of working age population (15-64 years old) |
27. | Proportion with Remaining Life Expectancy Under 15 | RLE15 | Proportion of population with remaining life expectancy of less than 15 years |
Population Health Targets |
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Immunization | |||
28. | Expected Live Birth | ELB, TP2 | Total number of births during a single year period calculated by interpolating five-yearly births |
29. | Population aged 00-11 Months | TP3 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
30. | Population aged 02-11 Months | TP4 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
31. | Population aged 12-23 Months | TP4 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
32. | Population aged 00-23 Months | TP4 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
33. | Population aged 06-23 Months | TP7 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
34. | Population aged 00-35 Months | TP8 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
35. | Population aged 00-59 Months | TP9 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
36. | Population aged 06-59 Months | TP10 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
37. | Population aged 12-59 Months | TP11 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
Children | |||
38. | Population aged 00-14 Months | TP12 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
Adolescent | |||
39. | Population aged 10-19 Months | TP13 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
40. | Male Population aged 10-19 Years | TP14 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
41. | Female Population aged 10-19 Years | TP15 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
Reproduction | |||
42. | Female Population aged 15-49 Years | TP16 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
43. | Women in Reproductive Age(15-49 Years) | TP17 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
44. | Mean Women in Reproductive Age(15-49 Years) | TP18 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
45. | Expected Pregnancy | TP19 | Expected number of pregnancy calculated by multiplying applying a factor (based on DHS) |
Old Aging | |||
46. | Population aged 60 Years and above | TP20 | Population for a given age calculated by interpolating population data by five-yearly age and period |
This project is supported by the Data for Development in Nepal Program, which is being implemented by the Asia Foundation and Development Initiatives, with funding form the UK Aid.